Sunday, November 02, 2008

Obama and 102

Someone once told me that they think blogs are a good place to air anecdotal evidence and hunches. If you want data, go to an institution. If you want personal feelings and judgements go to a blog. Well, here is a 'hunch'.

We are expected to see the highest voter turnout ever for this election. Whether you like him or not, Barack Obama has made this election exciting. He has been able to connect to many in this country who do not normally vote.

McCain/Palin have reached out too, but they are not the reason why so many people will be voting this election. People are either coming out to vote for Obama, or against him—but the point is more people will be voting.

Obama typifies his message of change. Being of mixed race allows him to connect to all races, religions, regions and economic backgrounds. It’s easy for everyone to see a little of themselves in Barack Obama.

I think high turnout for Obama may result to be a good thing for Arizona, particularly on Proposition 102, Arizona’s proposed amendment to define marriage as One Man and One Woman.

I’m just guessing…and...I haven’t seen any poling data to confirm or deny this…but…it may be that the majority of these first time voters (who will vote for Obama) are also pro-traditional family and will vote Yes for Marriage in Arizona.

I don’t think there is a strong connection between people who want to see a black president and people who want to allow gay marriage.

So, the interest in the elections this year has been phenomenal. The only reason why many will vote this year is because of one man, Barack Obama. I just hope that they don’t stop voting at the top of the ballot—they could give a big boost to Arizona if they make it down to 102.

Ps. If someone comes up with some real data or compelling reason for me not to believe this, I just might back-peddle on this…but, this is what I’m currently thinking.

2 comments:

debsfreckles said...

Your hunch may be correct but I will have to say that I do not connect with Obama really in any way. I have really enjoyed reading your path to the polls.

Unknown said...

Interesting.... this whole time, I thought you were leaning more towards McCain... It's great to live in a country where one can make a choice!

I would have to disagree with you... are you saying that most Obama voters will be against gay marriage? I don't have time to find data, but I think the opposite is true. Obama fans are looking for change... they want a different picture (meaning they don't want the same old, same old)... that includes "opening up" to different lifestyles (now I have noticed more members voting for the democratic candidate... but that is still a small majority in the democratic party...
To be honest, I think Sarah Palin is what hurt McCain. Don't know where his political analyst were when he made that choice... or maybe she really was the only "pick" he had :D